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| #1108705 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:44 AM 24.Sep.2022) TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Hermine Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102022 200 PM CVT Sat Sep 24 2022 Hermine is a strongly sheared and weak tropical cyclone. Satellite images indicate that the low-level center is exposed well to the south-southwest of the main area of deep convection. A recent ASCAT-B pass caught the eastern half of the storm and showed peak winds of about 30 kt well northeast of the center. Based on this data and the Dvorak estimates, Hermine is being held at a 35-kt tropical storm for this advisory, but that could be a little generous. Regardless, the main impact is heavy rain that continues across the Canary Islands. The storm is moving northward at 7 kt and that motion is expected to continue during the next day or two while Hermine moves in the flow on the west side of a subtropical ridge. After that time, a turn toward the left is expected as the shallow system is steered by the low-level flow. The NHC track forecast remains near the middle of the guidance envelope. Hermine is currently experiencing about 20 kt of southwesterly vertical wind shear. Since the shear is expected to increase while Hermine moves into a region of cooler SSTs and drier air, weakening is forecast. Hermine is now predicted to become a remnant low in 36 hours, but given recent trends and the expected environment, the transition to a post-tropical cyclone could occur sooner than that. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/1500Z 20.8N 20.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 25/0000Z 22.1N 20.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 25/1200Z 23.6N 20.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 26/0000Z 24.5N 20.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 26/1200Z 25.0N 20.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 27/0000Z 25.4N 21.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi |
