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| #1108756 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:51 PM 24.Sep.2022) TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Hermine Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102022 800 PM CVT Sat Sep 24 2022 Hermine has generally changed little during the past several hours and it continues to produce heavy rains across the Canary Islands. The cyclone remains strongly sheared with the low-level center exposed well to the south-southwest of the main area of deep convection due to strong southwesterly shear. The initial intensity is lowered to 30 kt, which is near the high end of the satellite estimates. This makes Hermine a tropical depression. The storm is moving northward at 9 kt, and that motion is expected to continue during the next day or two while Hermine moves in the flow on the west side of a subtropical ridge. After that time, a turn toward the left is expected as the shallow system is steered by the low-level flow. The NHC track forecast remains near the middle of the guidance envelope. Hermine is expected to move into a region of even stronger shear, drier air, and cooler SSTs, which should cause the storm to slowly weaken. The GFS and ECMWF simulated satellite images show that the system should lose all of its deep convection tomorrow, and the NHC forecast now shows the system becoming a remnant low in 24 hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/2100Z 21.8N 20.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 25/0600Z 23.1N 20.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 25/1800Z 24.0N 20.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 26/0600Z 24.7N 20.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 26/1800Z 25.1N 21.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 27/0600Z 25.4N 22.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi |
