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| #1108808 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:54 PM 24.Sep.2022) TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Ian Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022 1100 PM EDT Sat Sep 24 2022 ...IAN FORECAST TO BEGIN RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING AND BECOME A HURRICANE ON SUNDAY... ...HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR WESTERN CUBA... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.7N 77.7W ABOUT 395 MI...630 KM SE OF GRAND CAYMAN ABOUT 685 MI...1105 KM SE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Cuba has issued a Hurricane Watch for the Cuban provinces of Isla de Juventud, Pinar del Rio, and Artemisa, and a Tropical Storm Watch for the Cuban provinces of La Habana, Mayabeque, and Matanzas. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Grand Cayman A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Cuban provinces of Isla de Juventud, Pinar del Rio, and Artemisa A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Little Cayman and Cayman Brac * Cuban provinces of La Habana, Mayabeque, and Matanzas A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests in central Cuba, the Florida Keys, and the Florida peninsula should monitor the progress of Ian. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ian was located near latitude 14.7 North, longitude 77.7 West. Ian is moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn toward the west-northwest and northwest at a similar forward speed is expected on Sunday, followed by a turn toward the north-northwest on Monday and north on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Ian is forecast to pass well southwest of Jamaica on Sunday, and pass near or west of the Cayman Islands early Monday. Ian will then move near or over western Cuba Monday night and early Tuesday and emerge over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is forecast to begin on Sunday. Ian is expected to become a hurricane on Sunday and reach major hurricane strength by late Monday before it reaches western Cuba. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Ian can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach Grand Cayman by early Monday, with tropical storm conditions expected by Sunday night. Tropical storm conditions are possible on Little Cayman and Cayman Brac by Sunday night or early Monday. Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area in Cuba by Monday night or early Tuesday, with tropical storm conditions possible by late Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area in Cuba Monday night and Tuesday. RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Ian is expected to produce the following rainfall: Jamaica and the Cayman Islands: 3 to 6 inches, with local maxima up to 8 inches Western Cuba: 4 to 8 inches, with local maxima up to 12 inches Florida Keys and southern Florida: 2 to 4 inches, with local maxima up to 6 inches through Tuesday evening These rains may produce flash flooding and mudslides in areas of higher terrain, particularly over Jamaica and Cuba. Flash and urban flooding is possible with rainfall across the Florida Keys and the Florida peninsula through mid next week. Additional flooding and rises on area streams and rivers across northern Florida and parts of the Southeast cannot be ruled out, especially in central Florida given already saturated antecedent conditions. STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 9 to 14 feet above normal tide levels along the coast of western Cuba in areas of onshore winds in the watch area Monday night and early Tuesday. Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds in the Cayman Islands Sunday night into Monday. Localized coastal flooding is possible along the coast of Jamaica in areas of onshore winds on Sunday. SURF: Swells generated by Ian will begin affecting Jamaica overnight and the Cayman Islands on Sunday. Swells will then spread northwestward to the southwestern coast of Cuba and the coasts of Honduras, Belize, and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico Monday and Monday night. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Berg |
