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| #1108923 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:00 PM 25.Sep.2022) TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM IAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092022 2100 UTC SUN SEP 25 2022 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS FROM SEVEN MILE BRIDGE SOUTHWARD TO KEY WEST...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * GRAND CAYMAN * CUBAN PROVINCES OF ISLA DE JUVENTUD...PINAR DEL RIO...AND ARTEMISA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CUBAN PROVINCES OF LA HABANA...MAYABEQUE...AND MATANZAS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LITTLE CAYMAN AND CAYMAN BRAC * LOWER FLORIDA KEYS FROM SEVEN MILE BRIDGE SOUTHWARD TO KEY WEST...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM- FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS IN CENTRAL CUBA...THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IAN. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 80.3W AT 25/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 80.3W AT 25/2100Z AT 25/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 80.0W FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 17.3N 81.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 19.2N 82.9W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 21.1N 83.7W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 23.0N 84.2W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 35SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 90SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 24.8N 84.4W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...140NE 130SE 100SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 26.2N 84.4W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...180NE 140SE 120SW 150NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 28.3N 84.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z 31.0N 83.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.2N 80.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 26/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0300Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART |
