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| #110897 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:31 PM 14.Sep.2006) TCDAT2 HURRICANE GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006 1100 PM EDT THU SEP 14 2006 THE INITIAL MOTION IS 045/08 KT. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST OR REASONING. GORDON HAS SLOWED DOWN SLIGHTLY AS ADVERTISED BY THE MAJORITY OF THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS UNTIL A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. MOVES EASTWARD OVER THE ATLANTIC AND GRADUALLY PICKS UP THE CYCLONE AND ACCELERATES IT TO THE NORTHEAST AND EVENTUALLY TO THE EAST AS A SIGNIFICANT EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE AT DAYS 4 AND 5. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH OF AND SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK THROUGH 72 HOURS...AND THEN A LITTLE FASTER AFTER THAT WHICH IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS. ALTHOUGH CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED SLIGHTLY...GORDON STILL HAS A CLASSIC WELL-DEFINED EYE IN MICROWAVE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE INTENSITY OF 100 KT IS BASED ON A BLEND OF SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 90 TO 102 KT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST BASICALLY REMAINS UNCHANGED WITH ONLY SLOW WEAKENING EXPECTED AS GORDON MOVES OVER GRADUALLY COOLER WATERS FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS BEFORE ENCOUNTERING SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER WATER AFTER THAT. HOWEVER...BY DAYS 4 AND 5...GORDON WILL BE GETTING A SHOT OF BAROCLINIC ENERGY FROM AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH... WHICH SHOULD HELP TO KEEP THE CYCLONE AS A STRONG EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE...POSSIBLY EVEN A STORM SYSTEM. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 15/0300Z 30.6N 54.3W 100 KT 12HR VT 15/1200Z 31.4N 53.5W 90 KT 24HR VT 16/0000Z 32.1N 52.7W 80 KT 36HR VT 16/1200Z 32.9N 51.9W 70 KT 48HR VT 17/0000Z 34.0N 50.8W 60 KT 72HR VT 18/0000Z 37.5N 46.0W 50 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 19/0000Z 41.5N 35.5W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 20/0000Z 43.0N 21.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ FORECASTER STEWART |
