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| #110903 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:55 PM 14.Sep.2006) TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM HELENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006 0300 UTC FRI SEP 15 2006 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 38.9W AT 15/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 90NE 45SE 0SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 45SE 0SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 38.9W AT 15/0300Z AT 15/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 38.3W FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 15.3N 40.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 45SE 30SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 16.4N 43.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 50SE 50SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 17.5N 45.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 25SW 50NW. 34 KT...125NE 75SE 60SW 125NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 18.5N 46.7W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...150NE 110SE 75SW 125NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 20.3N 49.4W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...150NE 110SE 75SW 125NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 22.4N 51.9W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 24.5N 54.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.5N 38.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0900Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART |
