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| #1109253 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:59 PM 27.Sep.2022) TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Ian Advisory Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022 500 PM EDT Tue Sep 27 2022 ...HURRICANE WARNING EXTENDED SOUTHWARD IN SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, CATASTROPHIC WINDS AND FLOODING EXPECTED WITH IAN IN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.0N 83.2W ABOUT 230 MI...375 KM S OF SARASOTA FLORIDA ABOUT 50 MI...85 KM SSW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.12 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Hurricane Warning has been extended southward on the west coast of Florida to Chokoloskee. The government of Cuba has downgraded the Hurricane Warning to a Tropical Storm Warning for the provinces of Isla de Juventud, Pinar del Rio, and Artemisa. The Tropical Storm Watch from the Suwannee River to Indian Pass, for the Upper Florida Keys, Florida Bay, and for southeastern Florida from south of Boca Raton has been upgraded to a Tropical Storm Warning. The Storm Surge Watch from Marineland to the Flagler/Volusia County Line has been upgraded to a Storm Surge Warning. The Storm Surge Watch from the Aucilla River to the Suwannee River has been discontinued. A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Chokoloskee to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay * Dry Tortugas A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Suwannee River southward to Flamingo * Tampa Bay * Dry Tortugas * Flagler/Volusia Line to the mouth of the St. Mary's River * St. Johns River A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cuban provinces of La Habana, Mayabeque, and Matanzas * Suwannee River to the Anclote River * All of the Florida Keys * Flamingo to Altamaha Sound * Flamingo to Chokoloskee * Lake Okeechobee * Florida Bay A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Florida Keys from the Card Sound Bridge westward to Key West * Florida Bay * Mouth of St. Mary's River to South Santee River * South of Marineland to the Volusia/Flagler county line A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of Altamaha Sound to South Santee River A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ian was located near latitude 24.0 North, longitude 83.2 West. Ian is moving toward the north near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn toward the north-northeast with a reduction in forward speed is forecast tonight and Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Ian is expected to move over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico today, pass west of the Florida Keys later tonight, and approach the west coast of Florida within the hurricane warning area on Wednesday and Wednesday night. Maximum sustained winds remain near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher gusts. Ian is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Re-strengthening is expected later today through Wednesday. Ian is forecast to approach the west coast of Florida as an extremely dangerous major hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 952 mb (28.12 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Ian can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml. STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... * Middle of Longboat Key to Bonita Beach, including Charlotte Harbor...8-12 ft * Bonita Beach to Chokoloskee...6-9 ft * Anclote River to Middle of Longboat Key, including Tampa Bay...4-6 ft * Suwannee River to Anclote River...3-5 ft * Mouth of the St. Mary's River to Altamaha Sound...4-6 ft * Chokoloskee to East Cape Sable...4-6 ft * Dry Tortugas...3-5 ft * Flagler/Volusia County Line to Mouth of the St. Mary's River, including St. Johns River...3-5 ft * Altamaha Sound to Savannah River...3-5 ft * St. Johns River south of Julington...2-4 ft * Savannah River to South Santee River...2-4 ft * East Cape Sable to Card Sound Bridge...2-4 ft * Florida Keys...2-4 ft * Patrick Air Force Base to Flagler/Volusia County Line...1-3 ft * Indian Pass to Suwanee River...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the right of the center, where the surge will be accompanied by large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. Water levels should be receding in Cuba as Ian moves away. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected along the west coast of Florida within the Hurricane Warning area on Wednesday morning, with tropical storm conditions possibly beginning tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in the Florida Keys tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area on the east coast of Florida beginning early Wednesday, spreading up to Georgia and South Carolina on Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area in Cuba through tonight. RAINFALL: Ian is expected to produce the following rainfall through Thursday night: * Western Cuba: 6 to 12 inches, with isolated totals up to 16 inches. These rains may produce flash flooding and mudslides in areas of higher terrain over western Cuba. * Florida Keys and South Florida: 6 to 8 inches, with isolated totals up to 12 inches. * Central and Northeast Florida: 12 to 18 inches, with isolated totals up to 24 inches. * Eastern Georgia and coastal South Carolina: 4 to 8 inches, with isolated totals up to 12 inches. Widespread catastrophic flash, urban, and river flooding is expected across central and west Florida beginning midweek. Widespread considerable flash, urban, and river flooding is expected across northern Florida, southeastern Georgia, and coastal South Carolina from the end of the week through the weekend. Limited river flooding is expected over portions of the southeastern United States into the Mid-Atlantic mid-to-late week. TORNADOES: Tornadoes are possible through Wednesday across central and south Florida. SURF: Swells generated by Ian are affecting the western Caribbean, and the Florida Keys, and will spread northward throughout the eastern Gulf of Mexico tonight and Wednesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Blake |
