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| #1109532 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:51 PM 28.Sep.2022) TCDAT1 Tropical Depression Eleven Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112022 500 PM AST Wed Sep 28 2022 The depression has not become any better organized this afternoon, and in fact, the low-level center is now mostly exposed to the west of the deepest convective activity, which is relatively meager. Satellite estimates are either unchanged or have even decreased a little this afternoon, and the latest initial intensity was held at 30 kt for this advisory. Tropical Depression Eleven has been moving to the north-northwest this afternoon a bit faster than earlier, estimated at 345/9-kt. A low- to mid-level ridge located to the east is steering the storm currently, and this ridge will stay put while the weakness associated with a large upper-level trough should allow the depression to turn northward in the subtropical Atlantic basin. The guidance this cycle is a shade further west early on, but actually ends up a bit east of the previous track in 48-60 hours. The NHC track forecast also was nudged a bit west earlier on, and a bit east by the 60 h, in good agreement with the consensus aids. The window of favorable upper-level winds is quickly closing, as the current 5-10 kt of vertical wind shear is expected to increase to over 20 kt in 24 hours. In addition, the depression is embedded in a fairly dry mid-level air environment, which is likely playing a role in the limited convective activity currently. The latest intensity forecast still gives an opportunity for the depression to become a short-lived tropical storm during the typical diurnal max in convection tonight, but now shows earlier weakening, making the system a remnant low in 60-h and dissipated shortly thereafter. This intensity forecast is in fairly good agreement with the consensus aids which have also trended downward form earlier today. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/2100Z 16.7N 34.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 29/0600Z 18.2N 35.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 29/1800Z 20.2N 37.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 30/0600Z 22.5N 38.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 30/1800Z 25.1N 39.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 01/0600Z 28.5N 38.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 01/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin |
