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| #1109596 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:39 PM 28.Sep.2022) TCDAT1 Tropical Depression Eleven Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112022 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 28 2022 There`s been little change of note with the depression this evening. All of its deep convection is displaced well to the northeast of its center of circulation. In the absence of recent ASCAT data, the intensity is based on the subjective Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB which suggest an intensity of 25-30 kt. Conservatively the advisory intensity was held at 30 kt, but this may be generous. There was a slight westward adjustment to the position of the depression at 00Z, which resulted in an adjustment of the track forecast in that direction. Otherwise there`s no change to any thinking behind the forecast. The depression should continue heading generally northwestward or north-northwestward for a day or two. The environment around the cyclone is forecast to quickly get very hostile, which should prevent strengthening and should cause it to dissipate within a few days, as indicated by all dynamical models. The NHC track and intensity forecasts remain near the various consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0300Z 17.2N 35.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 29/1200Z 18.6N 36.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 30/0000Z 20.7N 38.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 30/1200Z 23.1N 39.7W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 01/0000Z 26.0N 40.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky |
