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| #1109602 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:02 PM 28.Sep.2022) TCDAT4 Hurricane Ian Discussion Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022 1100 PM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022 Ian remains inland over central Florida at this time. Although the eye is no longer evident on satellite or radar imagery, it continues to have a well-organized cloud pattern, and surface observations show hurricane-force winds near the system's core. Assuming a decay rate similar to that given by the Decay-SHIPS model, the current intensity is set at 80 kt. Given the lack of pressure observations from surface stations, the central pressure is estimated using a blend of standard wind/pressure relationships. Steady weakening will occur while Ian continues to move over land. Although not explicitly shown by the official forecast, the cyclone could still be at hurricane strength when it reaches the central east coast of Florida or the southeast U.S. coast. Therefore, a hurricane warnings and watches are in effect for that area. The environment during the next 36 hours or so does not appear to be conducive for strengthening, with strong shear and dry air prevailing. However some intensification is possible due to a favorable trough interaction. The official intensity forecast is above the model guidance at this time. Ian continues to move north-northeastward, or about 030/7 kt. Over the next couple of days, the system should move around a trough near the southeastern U.S. and west of a subtropical ridge over the southwestern Atlantic. The official track forecast is shifted slightly east of the previous one and is on top of the new multi-model consensus. Since the radar presentation of the center has degraded, and the center is no longer easily trackable, hourly Tropical Cyclone Updates will no longer be issued. Key Messages: 1. Severe and life-threatening storm surge inundation of 8 to 10 feet above ground level along with destructive waves is ongoing along the southwest Florida coastline from Englewood to Bonita Beach, including Charlotte Harbor. 2. Hurricane-force winds, especially in gusts, will continue to spread across central Florida near the core of Ian through early Thursday. Hurricane conditions are expected along the east-central Florida coast overnight through early Thursday. 3. Widespread, life-threatening catastrophic flooding, with major to record river flooding, will continue across portions of central Florida tonight with considerable flooding in northern Florida, southeastern Georgia and eastern South Carolina expected tomorrow through the end of the week. 4. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge on Thursday and Friday along the coasts of northeast Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina, with hurricane conditions possible. Residents in these areas should follow any advice given by local officials. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0300Z 27.5N 81.4W 80 KT 90 MPH...INLAND 12H 29/1200Z 28.4N 80.9W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 24H 30/0000Z 29.6N 80.3W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER 36H 30/1200Z 31.3N 80.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 01/0000Z 33.1N 80.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 60H 01/1200Z 35.0N 81.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 72H 02/0000Z 37.0N 81.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 03/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch |
