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| #1109733 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:51 AM 29.Sep.2022) TCDAT1 Tropical Depression Eleven Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112022 1100 AM AST Thu Sep 29 2022 The overnight deep convective burst with Tropical Depression Eleven did not appear to help spin up its low-level circulation. In fact, morning visible satellite imagery suggest that the circulation is actually losing definition, and may already be in the process of opening up into a surface trough. For now, we will continue writing advisories on the system, pending scatterometer data expected later today. The latest intensity was held at 30 kt based on the CI numbers from TAFB and SAB. If the current trends on visible satellite imagery continue, the system may be declared either post-tropical or dissipated as soon as this afternoon. Vertical wind shear only increases from here on out as the mid-level relative humidity remains quite low, so it looks increasingly unlikely the structure can recover. The NHC intensity forecast shows more immediate weakening but is generally in line with the intensity guidance consensus. The initial motion appears to still be off to the northwest, just a bit faster at 320/12 kt. This general motion is expected to continue until the system dissipates, as the system is steered generally by a low-level ridge that has nosed in to the northeast of the depression. The updated track is quite similar, but just a touch west, of the prior track, remaining close to the consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/1500Z 19.1N 37.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 30/0000Z 20.6N 38.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 30/1200Z 22.8N 40.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin |
