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| #110978 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:49 AM 15.Sep.2006) TCDAT2 HURRICANE GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006 1100 AM EDT FRI SEP 15 2006 GORDON HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN THIS MORNING AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE CLOUD TOPS ARE WARMING. DESPITE THE WEAKENING TREND...THE OUTFLOW REMAINS WELL ESTABLISHED IN ALL QUADRANTS EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTHWEST AS A RESULT OF THE SHEAR. DVORAK DATA T-NUMBERS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB WERE 4.0 OR 65 KT WHILE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE 5.0 OR 90 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 85 KT...AND IS A BLEND OF THE ABOVE ESTIMATES. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 050/6. THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST OF GORDON HAS WEAKENED AND GORDON IS NOW IN AN AREA OF VERY LITTLE STEERING CURRENTS. GORDON'S FORWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AROUND 5 KT TO THE NORTHEAST OR NORTH-NORTHEAST FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS. THE TRACK IS FORECAST TO BE A STAIR-STEP TO THE LEFT...WITH WEAK STEERING FLOW...AND THEN EVENTUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE TO THE RIGHT AS THE CYCLONE BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. THIS REASONING FOLLOWS CLOSELY WITH THE OVERALL MODEL GUIDANCE...AND IS SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT AND SLOWER OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN THE EARLIER PERIODS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AND GRADUALLY WEAKENS GORDON AS IT ENCOUNTERS COOLER SSTS FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS. THE INTENSITY IS THEN LEVELED OFF AT DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT GORDON WILL REMAIN A FAIRLY STRONG CYCLONE AS IT TRANSITIONS TO EXTRATROPICAL STATUS. THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED FROM A 0922 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 15/1500Z 31.1N 53.3W 85 KT 12HR VT 16/0000Z 31.8N 52.7W 75 KT 24HR VT 16/1200Z 32.5N 52.3W 65 KT 36HR VT 17/0000Z 33.5N 51.5W 60 KT 48HR VT 17/1200Z 35.3N 49.7W 55 KT 72HR VT 18/1200Z 39.5N 42.0W 50 KT 96HR VT 19/1200Z 42.5N 31.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 20/1200Z 45.0N 20.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ FORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN |
