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| #1110034 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:53 PM 30.Sep.2022) TCDAT4 Post-Tropical Cyclone Ian Discussion Number 34 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022 1100 PM EDT Fri Sep 30 2022 Ian has a classic comma-shaped cloud pattern of an extratropical cyclone in satellite imagery. The radar structure of the system has degraded tonight, but surface observations indicate the center of Ian is moving northward across the central portion of North Carolina. The initial intensity is lowered to 45 kt for this advisory, which is consistent with the latest Decay-SHIPS guidance and some marine observations offshore of the Cape Fear region that indicate sustained tropical-storm-force winds are still occurring over water. Ian is still moving northward at about 13 kt. This general motion is expected to continue through Saturday, which will bring Ian across the central portions of North Carolina and Virginia on Saturday. Continued weakening is forecast, and the cyclone is expected to dissipate by early Sunday. There were no notable changes made to the NHC track or intensity forecast. Because recent observations indicate that wind speeds over land have diminished, the Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued for the coasts of South Carolina and North Carolina. Similarly, coastal water levels have receded below warning criteria along the coast of North Carolina, and the Storm Surge Watches and Warnings there have also been discontinued. However, heavy rain and gusty winds are expected to continue into tomorrow morning across portions of the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic states. Even though all tropical watches and warnings have been discontinued, intermediate advisories will still be issued as long as Ian continues to produce winds of tropical storm strength. Key Messages: 1. Gusty winds are expected through early Saturday over portions of South Carolina and North Carolina. 2. Ongoing major to record river flooding will continue through next week across portions of central Florida. Considerable flooding is possible across portions of the Carolinas and southeast Virginia. Locally considerable flooding is possible across portions of northwest North Carolina and southern Virginia tonight into early Saturday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0300Z 35.3N 79.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 12H 01/1200Z 36.6N 79.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 02/0000Z 38.0N 79.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 02/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart |
