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| #111037 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:46 PM 15.Sep.2006) TCDAT2 HURRICANE GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER 20 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006 500 PM EDT FRI SEP 15 2006 DURING THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS...CONVECTION HAS RE-DEVELOPED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF GORDON AND A RAGGED EYE FEATURE HAS BECOME EVIDENT IN CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. DESPITE THE CURRENT APPEARANCE...DVORAK ESTIMATES HAVE LOWERED A BIT FROM THIS MORNING AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO 80 KT. GORDON IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN ENCOUNTERING COOLER WATERS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...FOLLOWING THE SHIPS AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE MODELS. THE INTENSITY IS HELD AT DAYS 3 AND 4 AS GORDON BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL. GORDON HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY FOR THE LAST 6 HOURS OR SO...EMBEDDED IN WEAK STEERING CURRENTS. THE GFS...GFDL...AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE MODEL GUIDANCE HAVE SHIFTED THEIR TRACKS FURTHER TO THE NORTH AND WEST AND MUCH SLOWER FROM THE PREVIOUS RUNS DURING THE FIRST 48 HOURS IN RESPONSE TO THE WEAK STEERING FLOW. A DEEP- LAYER TROUGH IS CURRENTLY MOVING OFF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. ONCE THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH REACHES GORDON...IN ABOUT 48 HOURS...THE CYCLONE SHOULD ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. BY DAY 5...GORDON IS FORECAST TO BE ABSORBED INTO A LARGE FRONTAL SYSTEM TO THE NORTH OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 15/2100Z 31.1N 53.5W 80 KT 12HR VT 16/0600Z 31.7N 53.4W 70 KT 24HR VT 16/1800Z 32.6N 52.7W 60 KT 36HR VT 17/0600Z 33.6N 52.0W 55 KT 48HR VT 17/1800Z 35.5N 50.5W 55 KT 72HR VT 18/1800Z 41.0N 41.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 19/1800Z 43.0N 26.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 20/1800Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM $$ FORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN |
