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| #1110604 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:51 PM 04.Oct.2022) TCDAT2 Tropical Depression Twelve Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122022 1100 PM AST Tue Oct 04 2022 The convective structure associated with the depression this evening appears to be evolving from one that previously had the center embedded in deep convection to more of a shear pattern, with only a singular burst of deep convection occuring to the east of the estimated center. This evolution is a result of southwesterly vertical wind shear which is increasing over the system currently. Unfortunately scatterometer data this evening largely missed the small circulation. Subjective and objective Dvorak estimates remain unchanged from 6 hours ago, and thus the latest intensity is held at 30 kt for this advisory. The depression remains positioned along the southwestern side of a mid-level ridge which is helping to steer the system generally north-northwestward, estimated at 335/8-kt. This synoptic steering pattern should remain in place with a strong mid- to upper-level low maintaining the weakness north of the cyclone. The latest track forecast was only nudged just a bit westward, shifting the NHC track in the direction of the consensus aids. The previously mentioned shear is expected to increase further to over 30 kt in about 24 hours, with sea surface temperatures gradually decreasing along the forecast track. The global and regional hurricane model guidance responds to this unfavorable environment by opening up the circulation of the depression into a surface trough sometime in the 36-48 hour period. The latest forecast now shows little intensification with the depression dissipating in 48 hours. It should be noted that some of the deterministic and ensemble model guidance suggest that the forecast remains of this system may have an opportunity to regenerate back into a tropical cyclone in the subtropical Atlantic well away from land in about 5 days. At this juncture, that possibility will not be reflected in the current forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0300Z 15.3N 30.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 05/1200Z 16.3N 31.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 06/0000Z 17.7N 32.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 06/1200Z 19.1N 34.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 07/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin |
