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| #1110640 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:45 AM 05.Oct.2022) TCDAT2 Tropical Depression Twelve Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122022 500 AM AST Wed Oct 05 2022 The depression is a sheared tropical cyclone, with the low-level center displaced about 40 n mi to the west-southwest of the main area of deep convection. Overall, the system is quite ragged-looking and elongated from south to north, with little evidence of banding. The current intensity estimate is held at 30 kt in agreement with Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB, although this may be generous. Southwesterly flow associated with a large upper-level low centered about 700 n mi to the north of the depression is imparting strong shear on the system. Global model guidance indicates that this shear will continue, and increase, over the next 48 hours or so while the tropical cyclone moves over waters of diminishing oceanic heat content. These negative environmental factors should result in the system dissipating in a couple of days. This is in general agreement with the latest LGEM intensity guidance, and with the global model guidance that shows the system opening up into a trough by late Thursday. The depression is moving somewhat to the left of previous estimates with an initial motion of 320/7 kt. Over the next day or two, the system is expected to move along the southwestern side of a mid-level ridge over the eastern Atlantic. The official track forecast is a little to the left of the previous one, but to the right of the model consensus. This is close to the latest ECMWF track prediction. As noted earlier, some of the model guidance, notably the ECMWF, and its ensemble, hints that the system could make a comeback after 5 days over the subtropical Atlantic. Given the uncertainties, this will not be shown in the official forecast at this time. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0900Z 15.8N 31.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 05/1800Z 16.8N 32.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 06/0600Z 17.9N 33.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 06/1800Z 19.1N 35.3W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch |
