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| #1110670 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:51 AM 05.Oct.2022) TCDAT2 Tropical Depression Twelve Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122022 1100 AM AST Wed Oct 05 2022 The depression continues to lose organization. Visible satellite imagery reveals an exposed low-level swirl displaced nearly 90 n mi west of its associated deep convection due to strong west-southwesterly vertical wind shear. The initial advisory intensity of 30 kt may be a little generous, and is based off a blend of the latest Dvorak intensity estimates. The shear affecting the depression is forecast to increase further, while the system ingests dry air to its west. This should disrupt significant deep convection from reforming near its low-level center. In fact, simulated satellite imagery from the GFS and ECMWF suggest that the deep convection will not return and the system should become a remnant low within the next 24 h. The latest NHC intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous one. However, the forecast now indicates that the depression will become a remnant low by 24 h. The 12 h motion of the depression is about 295/8 kt. However, the low-level center has been moving nearly westward over the past several hours. Most of the model guidance indicates a west-northwestward track to the south-southwest of a mid-level ridge over the next couple days until dissipation. The NHC track forecast has been adjusted to the left of the previous one and is on the left side of the guidance envelope, as it is assumed that the shallow low-level circulation is going to be steered more by the low-level flow than the models indicate. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/1500Z 15.6N 32.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 06/0000Z 16.1N 33.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 06/1200Z 17.0N 35.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 07/0000Z 18.1N 37.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto |
