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| #1110743 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:54 PM 05.Oct.2022) TCDAT2 Tropical Depression Twelve Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122022 1100 PM AST Wed Oct 05 2022 Occasional pulses of deep convection with cloud top temperatures below -70 C continue to occur near and to the northeast of the center of the tropical depression. We finally were able to receive some scatterometer data near the system, with the highest non-flagged wind retrievals of 28 and 32 kts from both ASCAT-B/C passes. Subjective and objective Dvorak T-numbers have been decreasing, but in deference to the higher scatterometer data, the initial intensity was held at 30 kt for this advisory. The southwesterly vertical wind shear over the depression is now above 30 kts, and is expected to increase further over the next 24 hours. This highly unfavorable environment should ultimately lead to the system`s demise as the remaining deep convection is stripped completely away from the low-level circulation. The intensity forecast still shows the depression becoming a remnant low in 24 hours and then opening up into a trough in 48 hours, though this could occur as soon as tomorrow morning. The depression has made a northward jog this evening, but smoothing out the 12 hour motion results in a northwest heading at 320/11 kt. A northwest to west-northwest motion is expected to continue until the system becomes a remnant low or dissipates in 24-48 hours. The NHC track has been adjusted a bit northward due to the initial position, but ends up near the previous forecast track in about 48 hours, following along with the consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0300Z 17.7N 32.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 06/1200Z 18.7N 33.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 07/0000Z 19.4N 35.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 07/1200Z 20.3N 38.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin |
