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| #1110812 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:05 AM 06.Oct.2022) TCPAT3 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Thirteen Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132022 1100 AM AST Thu Oct 06 2022 ...DISTURBANCE OVER THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN SEA EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO... ...HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ABC ISLANDS AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.4N 67.0W ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM ESE OF CURACAO ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM ESE OF NTHRN TIP OF GUAJIRA PNSULA COLOMBIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Colombia has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the coast of Colombia from the Colombia/Venezuela border westward to Riohacha. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Colombia from the Colombia/Venezuela border to Riohacha A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours. Interests in San Andres, Providencia, and the coasts of Nicaragua and Honduras should monitor the progress of the disturbance. Additional watches or warnings could be required later today or on Friday. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 11.4 North, longitude 67.0 West. The system is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Sunday. On the forecast track, the system is expected to move near the ABC Islands, the coast of northwestern Venezuela, and the Guajira Peninsula of Colombia through Friday morning. The system is then forecast to move across the southwestern Caribbean Sea and approach the coast of Nicaragua on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next few days. The system could become a tropical depression by tonight, and is forecast to become a tropical storm on Friday. The system is then expected to become a hurricane by Sunday as it approaches the coast of Nicaragua. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected along the coast of Colombia within the warning area by early Friday. Gusts to tropical storm force are also possible across the ABC Islands and the northwestern coast of Venezuela later today and tonight. RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Thirteen is expected to produce the following rain accumulations through early Monday: Northern Coastal Venezuela...3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches. Aruba, Bonaire, and Curacao...3 to 6 inches Guajira Peninsula of Colombia...3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches. San Andres and Providencia...6 to 12 inches Eastern Nicaragua...6 to 10 inches, isolated 16 inches. Central Nicaragua...3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches. This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods. SURF: Swells generated by disturbance will affect the ABC Islands and portions of the coasts of northwestern Venezuela and the Guajira Peninsula of Colombia through Friday. Swells could reach Jamaica, Providencia, and San Andres on Saturday, and portions of the coast of Central America on Sunday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg |
