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| #1110849 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:51 PM 06.Oct.2022) TCDAT3 Potential Tropical Cyclone Thirteen Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132022 500 PM AST Thu Oct 06 2022 The disturbance is gradually becoming better organized, with some convective banding attempting to form west of the center during the past several hours. Radar imagery from Curacao also suggests there could be a better-defined center trying to form just to the south of Bonaire and Curacao, but there are not enough nearby surface observations to confirm that. Therefore, the system is not yet designated as a tropical depression. However, an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft scheduled for a survey mission later this evening should hopefully give us a better sense of the wind field and help provide evidence if the system has developed a well-defined circulation. The track forecast is straightforward. The disturbance is being driven quickly westward with a motion of 270/15 kt by a strong low- to mid-level ridge stretching across the western Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico. This feature should maintain the system on a westward heading for the next 3 days across the southwestern Caribbean Sea, with some slowing of the forward motion as it moves away from the main high center over the western Atlantic. A slight turn toward the west-northwest across Central America is forecast by day 4 once the system, or its remnants, reaches the western periphery of the ridge. The track models remain tightly clustered, and the new NHC forecast is near the previous prediction and the TVCN/HCCA consensus aids. The system is likely to form a well-defined center and become a tropical cyclone within the next 6-12 hours, which is generally shown by the various global models. They, along with statistical-dynamical guidance, indicate the system should also begin to gradually strengthen while passing near the Guajira Peninsula of Colombia. Once the system reaches the southwestern Caribbean Sea, low to moderate shear and warm sea surface temperatures of 29 to 30 degrees Celsius should foster faster strengthening, and a consensus of the various SHIPS Rapid Intensification (RI) indices indicates a 65-75 percent chance of a 65-kt increase over the next 3 days. The NHC intensity is not yet that aggressive, but the peak intensity now shown in the official forecast is raised a bit higher to 75 kt at 60 and 72 hours. It`s possible that the intensity could get a little higher between those times before the system reaches land. Based on the forecast track, the system is unlikely to survive a trek across the terrain of Central America, and dissipation is therefore shown by day 5. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm conditions are expected across portions of the Guajira Peninsula of Colombia tonight and early Friday, where a Tropical Storm Warning has been issued. Gusts to tropical storm force are possible across portions of northern Venezuela, Aruba, Curacao, and Bonaire through early Friday. 2. The system is expected to strengthen when it moves over the southwestern Caribbean Sea, and a Hurricane Watch is in effect for San Andres, Providencia, and Santa Catalina Islands. Interests in Nicaragua and Honduras should also monitor the system`s progress, and additional watches or warnings could be required for portions of these areas tonight or on Friday 3. Heavy rainfall could cause life-threatening flash flooding over portions of the Guajira Peninsula of Colombia, northern Venezuela, and the island chain of Aruba, Bonaire and Curacao during the next day or two. Heavy rains and the potential for flash flooding and mudslides are expected to spread to portions of Central America this weekend. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/2100Z 11.6N 68.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 07/0600Z 12.0N 70.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL STORM 24H 07/1800Z 12.6N 73.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 08/0600Z 13.0N 76.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 08/1800Z 13.0N 79.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 09/0600Z 13.1N 81.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 09/1800Z 13.3N 84.1W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND 96H 10/1800Z 14.8N 89.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 120H 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg |
