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| #11110 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:45 AM 02.Oct.2004) TCDAT3 HURRICANE LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER 53 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT SAT OCT 02 2004 SATELLITE IMAGES REVEAL THAT LISA HAS MAINTAINED A WELL-ORGANIZED CLOUD PATTERN WITH AN EYE FEATURE AND AN ESTABLISHED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. INTENSITY ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT LISA IS STILL A 65-KNOT HURRICANE AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...MOST RECENT IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BEGUN TO DETERIORATE AND THE HURRICANE SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER COOLER WATERS. LISA IS RACING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OR 60 DEGREES AT 26 KNOTS. THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS ANTICIPATED UNTIL IT BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL AND ABSORBED BY A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW IN ABOUT 24 HOURS OR SO. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 02/1500Z 42.0N 36.8W 65 KT 12HR VT 03/0000Z 44.0N 32.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 24HR VT 03/1200Z 45.5N 23.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 04/0000Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW |
