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| #1111131 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:45 PM 08.Oct.2022) TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Julia Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132022 500 PM EDT Sat Oct 08 2022 Satellite images and radar data from San Andres Island show that convection is starting to fill in to the north of Julia`s center, with a burst now rotating around the east side of and over the core. Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB are now T3.5/55 kt and T4.0/65 kt, respectively, and the UW-CIMSS ADT is between 60 and 65 kt. Based on these data, Julia`s intensity is raised to 60 kt. Both NOAA and the Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to conduct missions in Julia this evening. Julia may have slowed down just a little bit, and the initial motion estimate is westward, or 270/15 kt. Strong ridging over Florida and the Gulf of Mexico should keep Julia on a relatively quick westward trajectory during the next couple of days, reaching the coast of Nicaragua overnight and then moving across the country on Sunday. Track model guidance has continued to shift southward, and there`s now nearly unanimous consensus that Julia`s center will remain intact and emerge off the Pacific coast of Nicaragua Sunday evening. Julia, or its remnants, are then expected to move westward, generally parallel to the coasts of El Salvador and Guatemala Sunday night and Monday. The new NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous prediction, except just a touch south while over the Pacific waters. Environmental conditions favor strengthening this evening and tonight before Julia reaches the coast of Nicaragua, especially if the recent burst of deep convection can remain near or over the center. As such, Julia is still forecast to become a hurricane within the next 12 hours. After landfall, fast weakening is expected, but Julia is forecast to be at or near tropical storm strength when it emerges off the Pacific coast of Nicaragua due to its fast transit across the country. Even if it does survive, the global models generally show the circulation dissipating or becoming absorbed by a broader area of low pressure associated with a Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event, and that should occur by Monday night. Regardless of Julia`s track and existence as a tropical cyclone, the evolving set up is likely to lead to heavy rains over Central America for several days, which could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in areas of mountainous terrain. Key Messages: 1. Julia is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane this evening or tonight before reaching the coast of Nicaragua. A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for portions of the Nicaragua coast and the islands of Providencia and San Andres. Hurricane-force winds and a dangerous storm surge are expected in areas where the core of the system crosses the islands this evening and moves onshore in Nicaragua tonight. 2. Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides are expected across portions of Central America this weekend. Flash flooding is possible across the Isthmus of Tehuantepec in Mexico early next week. 3. Julia is forecast to remain as a tropical storm while it moves across Central America to the adjacent Pacific waters, and tropical storm warnings are in effect along the Pacific coasts of Nicaragua, Honduras, and El Salvador to account for the possibility of tropical-storm-force winds in those areas late Sunday and Sunday night. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/2100Z 12.6N 81.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 09/0600Z 12.5N 83.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 09/1800Z 12.6N 86.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 36H 10/0600Z 12.8N 88.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER 48H 10/1800Z 13.3N 91.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 11/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg |
