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| #1111132 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:45 PM 08.Oct.2022) TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Julia Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132022 500 PM EDT Sat Oct 08 2022 ...HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THE COAST OF NICARAGUA OVERNIGHT... ...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES POSSIBLE FROM HEAVY RAINS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.6N 81.3W ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM S OF ISLA DE PROVIDENCIA COLOMBIA ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM ENE OF BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of El Salvador has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the entire coast of El Salvador. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * San Andres, Providencia, and Santa Catalina Islands Colombia * Nicaragua from Bluefields to Puerto Cabezas A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Nicaragua north of Puerto Cabezas to the Honduras/Nicaragua border A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Nicaragua south of Bluefields to the Nicaragua/Costa Rica border * Nicaragua north of Puerto Cabezas to the Honduras/Nicaragua border * Pacific coast of Nicaragua * Pacific coast of Honduras * Coast of El Salvador A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Honduras from the Nicaragua/Honduras border to Punta Patuca A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Julia was located near latitude 12.6 North, longitude 81.3 West. Julia is moving toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h). A continued westward motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Julia is expected to reach the coast of Nicaragua overnight, move across Nicaragua on Sunday, and then move near or along the Pacific coasts of Honduras, El Salvador, and Guatemala through Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast this evening and tonight, and Julia could become a hurricane while passing near San Andres and Providencia Islands this evening. Julia is also expected to be a hurricane when it reaches the coast of Nicaragua overnight. Weakening is expected once Julia moves inland, but it is forecast to still be a tropical storm when it moves off the Pacific coast of Nicaragua late Sunday. Julia should weaken to a tropical depression on Monday and dissipate by Monday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Julia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring on the Colombian islands of San Andres, Providencia, and Santa Catalina, and hurricane conditions are expected this evening. Hurricane conditions are expected along the coast of Nicaragua within the hurricane warning area overnight and early Sunday morning, with tropical storm conditions beginning by this evening. Hurricane conditions are possible along the coast of Nicaragua within the hurricane watch area early Sunday morning. Tropical storm conditions are expected along the Caribbean coast of Nicaragua within the tropical storm warning areas by tonight or early Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are possible along the coast of Honduras within the watch area on Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are expected along the Pacific coasts of Nicaragua, Honduras, and El Salvador Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. RAINFALL: Julia is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through early Tuesday: San Andres and Providencia...6 to 12 inches. Nicaragua...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches. Remainder of Central America...4 to 8 inches, isolated 12 inches. Isthmus of Tehuantepec in Mexico...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches. This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides through this weekend. Flash flooding is possible across the Isthmus of Tehuantepec in Mexico early next week. STORM SURGE: A storm surge is likely to raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds on San Andres, Providencia, and Santa Catalina Islands. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and damaging waves. A storm surge is likely to raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of Nicaragua in areas of onshore winds. Large and damaging waves will likely accompany the storm surge near the coast. SURF: Swells generated by Julia are affecting Jamaica, Providencia, and San Andres, and will reach portions of the coast of Central America this evening into Sunday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Berg |
