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| #1111163 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:45 PM 08.Oct.2022) TCDAT3 Hurricane Julia Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132022 1100 PM EDT Sat Oct 08 2022 Reports from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Julia became a hurricane near 08/23Z. NOAA measured 700-mb flight-level winds of 73 kt and estimated surface winds of 67 kt on the SFMR, while the Air Force measured 850-mb flight-level winds of 75 kt. The central pressure fell to near 988 mb while the planes were in the cyclone. Based on these data, the initial intensity is set at 65 kt. The initial motion is still westward or 270/14 kt. Strong deep-layer ridging to the north of the hurricane should steer Julia generally westward during the next couple of days with a gradual decrease in forward speed. This motion should bring the center across the coast of Nicaragua during the next several hours, then across Nicaragua on Sunday before emerging into the Pacific late Sunday or Sunday night. After that, Julia, or its remnants, are expected to continue moving generally westward until the system dissipates. The new official forecast track is very similar to the previous track and lies close to the various consensus models. Julia has only a few more hours before landfall in Nicaragua. However, infrared and microwave satellite imagery shows that the convective structure has become much better organized, and the hurricane would likely undergo rapid intensification if it wasn`t about to make landfall. While not explicitly shown in the intensity forecast, maximum sustained winds could reach 70-75 kt before landfall. A quick weakening is expected after landfall, but Julia is forecast to be at or near tropical storm strength when it emerges off the Pacific coast of Nicaragua. The intensity forecast still calls for Julia to weaken over the Pacific and dissipate after 48 h as it becomes absorbed by a broader area of low pressure associated with a Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event, a scenario supported by the GFS, ECMWF, and Canadian models. However, the UKMET maintains some uncertainty about this, as it shows Julia surviving and movingly slowly westward into the Pacific during the next several days. Regardless of Julia`s track and existence as a tropical cyclone, the evolving weather pattern is likely to lead to heavy rains over Central America for several days, which could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in areas of mountainous terrain. Key Messages: 1. Julia is expected to reach the coast of Nicaragua as a hurricane within the next several hours. Hurricane-force winds and a dangerous storm surge will continue in portions of Providencia and San Andres islands during the next few hours, and are expected near the core of the hurricane when it moves onshore in Nicaragua. 2. Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides are expected across portions of Central America this weekend. Flash flooding is possible across the Isthmus of Tehuantepec in Mexico early next week. 3. Julia is forecast to remain as a tropical storm while it moves across Central America to the adjacent Pacific waters, and tropical storm warnings are in effect along the Pacific coasts of Nicaragua, Honduras, and El Salvador to account for the possibility of tropical-storm-force winds in those areas late Sunday and Sunday night. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0300Z 12.5N 82.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 09/1200Z 12.5N 84.7W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND 24H 10/0000Z 12.6N 87.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER 36H 10/1200Z 13.0N 90.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 11/0000Z 13.4N 92.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 11/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven |
