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| #1111198 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:06 AM 09.Oct.2022) TCDAT3 Hurricane Julia Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132022 500 AM EDT Sun Oct 09 2022 Julia is estimated to have made landfall as a 75-kt hurricane around 0715 UTC along the coast of Nicaragua near Pearl Lagoon. The hurricane appeared to strengthen through landfall, with a more well-defined inner core noted in passive microwave imagery and a center that was embedded deep within the very cold central dense overcast overnight. With the center now located just inland over eastern Nicaragua, the initial intensity is held at 75 kt for this advisory, which is supported by the last ADT estimate from UW-CIMSS (75 kt) and the 06 UTC Dvorak estimate from SAB (77 kt). Julia is moving westward at about 14 kt, and a strong ridge that extends across the southern Gulf of Mexico will continue to steer Julia quickly westward across Nicaragua today. The center of the cyclone is forecast to emerge over the eastern Pacific waters this evening or tonight and then move westward or west-northwestward near the Pacific coast of El Salvador and Guatemala on Monday. There is still above average uncertainty in this part of the forecast. While some models (ECMWF, HWRF, HMON) have trended closer to the coast and even show Julia moving inland, the UKMET lies on the southern edge of the envelope and keeps Julia farther offshore. The GFS is somewhere in the middle, generally showing the vortex skirting the coast. The NHC track forecast has been adjusted to the north of the previous one at 36-48 h, in line with the majority of the models. Land interaction should result in considerable weakening of Julia during the next 12 h or so. However, the fast forward motion is forecast to keep the surface circulation intact, and various models indicate the cyclone will maintain enough organization to remain a tropical storm as it moves off the Pacific coast of Nicaragua later today. The NHC forecast track keeps the center near the coast, where the topography of Central America could further disrupt its low-level structure. The models also indicate that deep-layer easterly shear may increase over the cyclone during the next 24-36 h. Based on these factors, the official NHC forecast shows Julia gradually weakening on Monday and then dissipating on Tuesday. If the track deviates farther north as suggested by some of the models, Julia could move inland and dissipate even sooner than forecast. Regardless of Julia`s track and future status as a tropical cyclone, the evolving weather pattern is likely to lead to heavy rains over Central America for several days, which could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in areas of mountainous terrain. Key Messages: 1. Hurricane-force winds and a dangerous storm surge are occurring along portions of the coast of Nicaragua where the core of Julia made landfall this morning. 2. Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides are expected across portions of Central America Sunday and Monday. Flash flooding is anticipated across the Isthmus of Tehuantepec in Mexico early this week. 3. Julia is forecast to remain as a tropical storm while it moves across Central America to the adjacent Pacific waters, and tropical storm warnings are in effect along the Pacific coasts of Nicaragua, Honduras, and El Salvador to account for the possibility of tropical-storm-force winds in those areas later today through Monday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0900Z 12.4N 84.0W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND 12H 09/1800Z 12.5N 86.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 24H 10/0600Z 12.7N 88.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER 36H 10/1800Z 13.3N 91.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 11/0600Z 14.1N 93.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart |
