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| #111132 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:03 AM 16.Sep.2006) TCDAT2 HURRICANE GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER 22 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006 500 AM EDT SAT SEP 16 2006 ONLY LIMITED DEEP CONVECTION IS OCCURRING AROUND THE NOW RAGGED EYE SEEN IN INFRARED IMAGERY. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK DATA-T NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 3.5 AND 4.0...AND GIVEN THIS...THE INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 65 KT. GORDON WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN SLOWLY OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT CROSSES THE 27C ISOTHERM AND MOVES OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS. THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT GORDON WILL BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BETWEEN DAYS 2 AND 3...AND THE INTENSITY IS HELD AT 50 KT ASSUMING THAT THE CYCLONE RECEIVES A SHOT OF BAROCLINIC ENERGY LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE GFS...UKMET...CANADIAN...ECMWF...AND GFDL MODELS ALL SHOW GORDON BECOMING ABSORBED INTO A FRONTAL SYSTEM BY DAY 4 OR 5. ONLY THE NOGAPS KEEPS GORDON AS A SEPARATE SYSTEM WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE...A SOLUTION THAT SEEMS UNLIKELY GIVEN THE NOGAPS MODEL ROBUST BOGUS. THE CURRENT FORECAST INDICATES EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY DAY 3 AND ABSORPTION BY THE FRONT AT DAY 4. GORDON HAS BEEN MOVING ERRATICALLY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND NOW APPEARS TO BE NEARLY STATIONARY OR EVEN DRIFTING SLIGHTLY WEST. THE GLOBAL MODELS ALL SHOW A SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THEREAFTER...A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST AND INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MOVING OFFSHORE OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AND THE GFDL...AND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE ARE LEFT OF AND SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THROUGH 48 HOURS. AN INCREASE IN MODEL SPREAD IS SEEN AT DAY 3 AS THE CYCLONE ACCELERATES TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BETWEEN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE FORWARD SPEED CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE TREND OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS... CONU...AND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 16/0900Z 31.3N 53.7W 65 KT 12HR VT 16/1800Z 32.0N 53.3W 65 KT 24HR VT 17/0600Z 33.2N 52.7W 60 KT 36HR VT 17/1800Z 35.1N 51.2W 55 KT 48HR VT 18/0600Z 37.3N 48.0W 55 KT 72HR VT 19/0600Z 40.5N 35.5W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 20/0600Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN/KNABB |
