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| #1111515 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:53 PM 11.Oct.2022) TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM KARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142022 2100 UTC TUE OCT 11 2022 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM CABO ROJO SOUTHWARD TO PUERTO VERACRUZ. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CABO ROJO TO PUERTO VERACRUZ A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 94.4W AT 11/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT.......100NE 0SE 60SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 94.4W AT 11/2100Z AT 11/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 94.2W FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 20.3N 94.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 30SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 21.1N 95.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 21.2N 96.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 20.7N 96.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 20.2N 96.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 19.9N 97.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.6N 94.4W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 12/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BUCCI/BLAKE |
