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| #1111543 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:16 AM 12.Oct.2022) TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Karl Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142022 1000 PM CDT Tue Oct 11 2022 ...KARL FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WHILE IT MOVES SLOWLY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.5N 94.9W ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM NE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM ESE OF TUXPAN MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has extended the Tropical Storm Watch southward to Roca Partida. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Cabo Rojo to Roca Partida A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in southeastern Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karl was located near latitude 20.5 North, longitude 94.9 West. Karl is moving toward the north-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through Wednesday. A turn to the west and west-southwest is expected on Wednesday evening and a turn to the southwest is forecast by Thursday morning. On the forecast track, Karl will be approaching the coast of Mexico within the watch area on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is expected for the next day or so, followed by gradual weakening on Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Karl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/MIATCDAT4.shtml RAINFALL: Karl is expected to produce the following rainfall totals: *Isthmus of Tehuantepec...3 to 6 inches, with local maximum up to 10 inches. *Southern Sierra Madre Oriental and adjacent coast...2 to 4 inches with local maximum up to 6 inches. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible along the Mexican coastline in the watch area starting Thursday. SURF: Swells generated by Karl are expected to effect the Mexican coastline for the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown |
