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| #1111544 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:16 AM 12.Oct.2022) TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Karl Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142022 1000 PM CDT Tue Oct 11 2022 Bursts of deep convection have continued to develop this evening near and to the northeast of the estimated center. Data from the earlier reconnaissance mission into Karl showed that the circulation was elongated along a south-southeast to north-northwest axis with at least a couple of swirls that are likely rotating around the mean center. The plane did not find flight-level or SFMR winds any stronger than what was reported before the release of the previous advisory. Therefore, the initial intensity is maintained at 35 kt, which is slightly above the latest Dvorak satellite estimates. The next reconnaissance mission into Karl is scheduled for Wednesday morning. Karl is moving north-northwestward or 330/5 kt, and this general motion is expected to continue through Wednesday. After that time, a ridge of high pressure is forecast to build to the northwest of Karl over northern Mexico. The flow around the southeastern flank of that anticyclone is expected to cause Karl to turn southwestward Wednesday night. This motion should then bring the cyclone near the coast of Mexico within the watch area on Thursday. The latest dynamical model guidance depicts a sharper turn Wednesday night and the official forecast was adjusted southward, and a bit faster than the previous forecast at 36 h and beyond. This southward adjustment required the government of Mexico to extend the Tropical Storm Watch southward to Roca Partida. The new NHC track forecast is close to the simple consensus aids and is also in good agreement with the ECMWF model. Karl is currently located within an environment of generally light southwesterly shear and over warm sea surface temperatures. This should allow some strengthening tonight or on Wednesday. After that time, increasing northwesterly shear and decreasing mid-level relative humidity are likely to cause some weakening before landfall. After Karl moves onshore, rapid decay is expected due to the mountainous terrain, and Karl is likely to dissipate in around 72 hours. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall could produce flash flooding in the Isthmus of Tehuantepec and in the southern Sierra Madre Oriental mountains and adjacent coastal areas with possible mudslides in areas of higher terrain. 2. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in Mexico starting Thursday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0300Z 20.5N 94.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 12/1200Z 21.0N 95.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 13/0000Z 21.4N 95.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 13/1200Z 21.1N 95.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 14/0000Z 20.2N 96.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 14/1200Z 19.4N 96.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 72H 15/0000Z 19.1N 97.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 16/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown |
