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| #1111558 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:45 AM 12.Oct.2022) TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Karl Intermediate Advisory Number 2A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142022 100 AM CDT Wed Oct 12 2022 ...KARL EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TODAY WHILE IT MOVES SLOWLY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.8N 94.9W ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM NE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM E OF TUXPAN MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Cabo Rojo to Roca Partida A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in southeastern Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karl was located near latitude 20.8 North, longitude 94.9 West. Karl is moving toward the north-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through today. A turn to the west and west-southwest is expected this evening and a turn to the southwest is forecast by Thursday morning. On the forecast track, Karl will be approaching the coast of Mexico within the watch area on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is expected for the next day or so, followed by gradual weakening on Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. During the past few hours, NOAA buoy 42055 located to the northeast of the center reported sustained winds of 36 mph (57 km/h) and a wind gust of 40 mph (65 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Karl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/MIATCDAT4.shtml RAINFALL: Karl is expected to produce the following rainfall totals: *Isthmus of Tehuantepec...3 to 6 inches, with local maximum up to 10 inches. *Southern Sierra Madre Oriental and adjacent coast...2 to 4 inches with local maximum up to 6 inches. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible along the Mexican coastline in the watch area starting Thursday. SURF: Swells generated by Karl are expected to effect the Mexican coastline for the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven |
