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| #1111616 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:56 AM 12.Oct.2022) TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Karl Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142022 1000 AM CDT Wed Oct 12 2022 ...AIR FORCE PLANE FINDS KARL MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.7N 94.7W ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM NNE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO ABOUT 240 MI...390 KM N OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has extended the Tropical Storm Watch eastward to Frontera. The Tropical Storm Watch from Cabo Rojo to Tuxpan has been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Tuxpan to Frontera A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in southeastern Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. Additional watches or warnings may be required for portions of the coast of Mexico later today or tonight. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karl was located near latitude 21.7 North, longitude 94.7 West. Karl is moving toward the north near 3 mph (6 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through today. A slow drift to the south and south-southeast is expected to begin this evening and a faster generally southward motion is forecast by Thursday morning. On the forecast track, Karl will be approaching the coast of Mexico within the watch area by Friday. Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft support maximum sustained winds of 45 mph (70 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 36 hours followed by slight weakening before landfall. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Karl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/MIATCDAT4.shtml RAINFALL: Karl is expected to produce 3 to 7 inches of rain, with local maxima up to 12 inches, across portions of Veracruz and Tabasco states in Mexico through Friday night. Rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches, with local maxima up to 6 inches, is also expected across portions of Chiapas. Flash flooding with mudslides in higher terrain is possible. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible along the Mexican coastline in the watch area starting Friday. SURF: Swells generated by Karl are expected to affect the Mexican coastline for the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Bucci/Brown |
