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| #1111618 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:56 AM 12.Oct.2022) TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM KARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142022 1500 UTC WED OCT 12 2022 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH EASTWARD TO FRONTERA. THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM CABO ROJO TO TUXPAN HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * TUXPAN TO FRONTERA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF MEXICO LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 94.7W AT 12/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT.......100NE 60SE 75SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 45SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 94.7W AT 12/1500Z AT 12/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 94.8W FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 22.0N 94.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 50SE 60SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 21.6N 94.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 20.9N 94.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 20.0N 94.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 19.1N 94.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 18.1N 95.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.7N 94.7W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 12/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BUCCI/BROWN |
