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| #1111635 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:56 PM 12.Oct.2022) TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Karl Special Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142022 100 PM CDT Wed Oct 12 2022 An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating Karl found believable SFMR wind speeds between 48-52 kt east of the center. Based on these observations, the initial intensity is increased to 50 kt. The near-term intensity forecast has been raised to account for the higher initial intensity. The reasoning for the intensity forecast has not changed from the earlier advisory. Karl is still expected to gradually weaken until making landfall in 60-72 h. The official track forecast has been adjusted slightly eastward at 12 and 24 hours based on its recent motion and now reflects a hairpin turn to the right that should be complete in about 24 hours. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall could produce instances of flash flooding, with mudslides in areas of higher terrain, across portions of Veracruz and Tabasco states in Mexico. 2. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in Mexico starting on Thursday night or Friday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/1800Z 22.0N 94.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 13/0000Z 22.2N 94.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 13/1200Z 21.6N 94.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 14/0000Z 20.9N 94.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 14/1200Z 20.0N 94.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 15/0000Z 19.1N 94.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 15/1200Z 18.1N 95.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 16/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Bucci/Brown/Cangialosi |
