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| #111171 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:46 AM 16.Sep.2006) TCDAT2 HURRICANE GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER 23 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006 1100 AM EDT SAT SEP 16 2006 GORDON HAS MAINTAINED A STEADY STATE THIS MORNING AND LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT IT DID 6 HOURS AGO. A RAGGED EYE REMAINS PRESENT AND SURROUNDING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES ARE BETWEEN -50 AND -65 DEGREES CELSIUS. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK DATA-T NUMBERS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB ARE 4.0...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 65 KT. GORDON SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE 26C ISOTHERM WITHIN 1 TO 2 DAYS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED IN THE NEAR TERM...THEN THE INTENSITY IS FORECAST TO HOLD STEADY DURING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THIS SOLUTION IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE. GORDON HAS REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY...BUT A SLIGHT HINT OF A SLOW NORTH-NORTHEAST MOTION HAS BEEN SEEN DURING THE PAST HOUR OR TWO. IN 24 HOURS OR SO...THE WEAKENED RIDGE WHICH HAS HELPED INHIBIT GORDON'S FORWARD MOTION SHOULD BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE...AND A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH SHOULD BE APPROACHING GORDON FROM THE WEST. THESE FEATURES ARE EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE THE CYCLONE TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD. BY 72 HOURS...GORDON SHOULD BECOME EXTRATROPICAL... AND THEN ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL SYSTEM IN 4 DAYS. MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO. THE ONLY OUTLIER IS THE NOGAPS MODEL WHICH MAINTAINS GORDON AS A SINGLE ENTITY MOVING AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST STAYS WITH THE CONSENSUS MODELS AND IS A BIT SLOWER AND TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK. THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY BASED UPON A 0856 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 16/1500Z 31.3N 53.7W 65 KT 12HR VT 17/0000Z 32.1N 53.5W 60 KT 24HR VT 17/1200Z 33.6N 52.6W 60 KT 36HR VT 18/0000Z 35.5N 50.5W 55 KT 48HR VT 18/1200Z 37.6N 46.6W 55 KT 72HR VT 19/1200Z 39.5N 36.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 20/1200Z...ABSORBED BY FRONT $$ FORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN |
