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| #111178 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:52 AM 16.Sep.2006) TCMAT3 HURRICANE HELENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006 1500 UTC SAT SEP 16 2006 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 45.6W AT 16/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB EYE DIAMETER 45 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 25SW 40NW. 34 KT.......150NE 150SE 100SW 125NW. 12 FT SEAS..200NE 180SE 180SW 225NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 45.6W AT 16/1500Z AT 16/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 45.2W FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 19.5N 46.9W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 35SW 50NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 125NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 20.4N 48.3W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 35SW 50NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 125NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 21.1N 49.4W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 35SW 50NW. 34 KT...175NE 150SE 100SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 21.9N 50.6W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 35SW 50NW. 34 KT...175NE 150SE 100SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 23.5N 53.5W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 35SW 50NW. 34 KT...200NE 175SE 125SW 150NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 25.5N 56.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 28.5N 58.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.8N 45.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN/LANDSEA |
