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#1111781 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:44 AM 13.Oct.2022)
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM KARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142022
1500 UTC THU OCT 13 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM
ALVARADO EASTWARD TO CIUDAD DEL CARMEN. THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH
NORTH OF ALVARADO HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ALVARADO TO CIUDAD DEL CARMEN

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 93.9W AT 13/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OR 155 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 70SE 50SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 45SW 45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 93.9W AT 13/1500Z
AT 13/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 94.1W

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 21.0N 93.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 20.0N 93.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 19.1N 93.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 18.0N 94.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 17.0N 95.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.7N 93.9W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 13/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN