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| #1111818 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:38 PM 13.Oct.2022) TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Karl Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142022 400 PM CDT Thu Oct 13 2022 ...KARL EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL AND TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.9N 93.5W ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM NNE OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SSE OR 155 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Alvarado to Ciudad del Carmen A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karl was located near latitude 20.9 North, longitude 93.5 West. Karl is moving toward the south-southeast near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion should continue through tonight. Karl is expected to turn southward or south-southwestward over the Bay of Campeche on Friday, and this motion should continue through early Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Karl should reach the coasts of Tabasco or Veracruz states in Mexico within the warning area late Friday night or early Saturday. Satellite-derived wind data indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next day or so, followed by weakening as Karl moves inland over southern Mexico. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Karl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/MIATCDAT4.shtml RAINFALL: Karl is expected to produce 3 to 7 inches of rain, with local maxima up to 10 inches, across portions of Veracruz, Tabasco, and northern Chiapas and Oaxaca states in Mexico through Sunday morning. These rains can produce flash flooding, along with mudslides, in higher terrain. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin within portions of the tropical storm warning area by late Friday or Friday night. SURF: Swells generated by Karl are expected to affect the Mexican coastline for the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Reinhart |
