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| #111248 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:34 PM 16.Sep.2006) TCDAT2 HURRICANE GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER 24 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006 500 PM EDT SAT SEP 16 2006 GORDON HAS MAINTAINED A RAGGED EYE FEATURE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND CONVECTION HAS DEEPENED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE. DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM ALL THREE AGENCIES REMAIN AT 65 KT AS DOES THE INITIAL INTENSITY. BOTH THE SHIPS AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE HAVE BACKED OFF ON WEAKENING GORDON IN THE FIRST 24 TO 36 HOURS. THIS IS PROBABLY DUE TO A SLOWER FORWARD MOTION...THE CYCLONE REMAINING OVER WARM WATERS LONGER...AND LOWER SHEAR THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HOLDS A STEADY INTENSITY OF 65 KT UNTIL GORDON REACHES WATERS BELOW 26C DEGREES AND INCREASING SHEAR. AT THAT TIME...SLOW WEAKENING SHOULD OCCUR UNTIL THE CYCLONE IS ABSORBED BY A FRONT IN 4 DAYS. IT APPEARS THAT GORDON'S FORWARD MOTION HAS FINALLY RESUMED AND IS ESTIMATED TO BE AROUND 340/3. A GENERAL SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN AND ACCELERATION TO THE NORTHEAST AS A RESULT OF AN APPROACHING DEEP- LAYER TROUGH FROM THE WEST. THE TRACK FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PRIMARILY DUE TO THE INITIAL NORTHWARD MOTION...AND IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS...UKMET...AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE. EVEN THOUGH SOME OF THE MODEL TRACKERS MAINTAIN GORDON THROUGH 120 HOURS...ANALYSIS OF THE MODEL FIELDS INDICATE AN OVERALL CONSENSUS IN THE CYCLONE BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL IN 3 DAYS AND ABSORBED BY A FRONT IN FOUR. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 16/2100Z 31.7N 54.0W 65 KT 12HR VT 17/0600Z 32.6N 53.6W 65 KT 24HR VT 17/1800Z 34.3N 52.3W 65 KT 36HR VT 18/0600Z 36.6N 49.6W 60 KT 48HR VT 18/1800Z 38.6N 44.6W 55 KT 72HR VT 19/1800Z 39.5N 32.5W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 20/1800Z...ABSORBED BY FRONT $$ FORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN |
