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| #111287 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:40 PM 16.Sep.2006) TCMAT3 HURRICANE HELENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006 0300 UTC SUN SEP 17 2006 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 47.5W AT 17/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 984 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT.......150NE 150SE 100SW 125NW. 12 FT SEAS..200NE 180SE 180SW 225NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 47.5W AT 17/0300Z AT 17/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 47.1W FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 20.2N 48.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 35SW 50NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 125NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 21.2N 49.7W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 35SW 50NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 135NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 22.1N 50.8W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...160NE 160SE 100SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 22.9N 52.3W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 100SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 24.1N 55.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 100SW 150NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 26.0N 57.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 29.0N 58.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.5N 47.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0900Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART |
