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| #111325 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:55 AM 17.Sep.2006) TCMAT3 HURRICANE HELENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006 0900 UTC SUN SEP 17 2006 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 48.2W AT 17/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 979 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT.......150NE 125SE 90SW 125NW. 12 FT SEAS..200NE 180SE 180SW 225NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 48.2W AT 17/0900Z AT 17/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 47.9W FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 20.7N 49.3W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...150NE 125SE 90SW 125NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 21.7N 50.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 35SW 50NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 125NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 22.6N 51.7W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 35SW 50NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 125NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 23.3N 53.2W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...175NE 175SE 100SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 24.0N 56.0W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...175NE 175SE 100SW 150NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 26.0N 58.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z 29.0N 59.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.0N 48.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN/KNABB |
