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| #111376 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:37 AM 17.Sep.2006) TCDAT2 HURRICANE GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER 27 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006 1100 AM EDT SUN SEP 17 2006 GORDON REFUSES TO WEAKEN. SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS THE HURRICANE WITH AN EYE FEATURE...DEEP CONVECTION...AND IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB WERE 77 KT...AND AFWA WAS 65 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS NUDGED UP TO 70 KT... SINCE BOTH THE SATELLITE ESTIMATES AND OVERALL APPEARANCE ARE SLIGHTLY IMPROVED. SMALL FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT OR TWO SINCE INTENSITY GUIDANCE FROM BOTH SHIPS AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE MAINTAIN GORDON AS A HURRICANE THROUGH 36 HOURS. THEREAFTER...A SLOW WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED UNTIL EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BEGINS IN ABOUT TWO DAYS. THE INITIAL MOTION APPEARS TO BE 010/9...SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN BEFORE. THIS NORTHWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BE SHORT-LIVED AS THE DEEP- LAYER TROUGH QUICKLY APPROACHES. THE FORECAST REASONING REMAINS THE SAME AS BEFORE...AND THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS WELL CLUSTERED. A SLIGHT ACCELERATION TO THE NORTHEAST IN 24 HOURS IS EXPECTED...WITH A FASTER MOTION TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST AS THE CYCLONE BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS AGREE THAT GORDON SHOULD BEGIN TO OBTAIN EXTRATROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS BY 48 HOURS...AND BECOME MERGED WITH A FRONT IN 96 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 17/1500Z 33.6N 53.2W 70 KT 12HR VT 18/0000Z 35.2N 51.6W 65 KT 24HR VT 18/1200Z 36.9N 48.4W 65 KT 36HR VT 19/0000Z 38.6N 43.5W 60 KT 48HR VT 19/1200Z 39.5N 37.2W 60 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 20/1200Z 40.0N 22.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 21/1200Z...ABSORBED BY FRONT $$ FORECASTER MAINELLI/AVILA |
