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| #1114157 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:45 AM 31.Oct.2022) TCMAT5 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FIFTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152022 0900 UTC MON OCT 31 2022 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * JAMAICA * GRAND CAYMAN ISLAND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA...ESPECIALLY BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED EARLY THIS WEEK. POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 76.1W AT 31/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT.......100NE 50SE 0SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 76.1W AT 31/0900Z AT 31/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 75.5W FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 16.1N 77.5W...TROPICAL CYCLONE MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 50SE 0SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 16.4N 79.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 50SE 0SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 16.8N 82.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 17.2N 84.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 17.4N 86.8W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 17.2N 88.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 16.0N 92.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.8N 76.1W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 31/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH |
