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| #1114230 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:57 PM 31.Oct.2022) TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM LISA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152022 2100 UTC MON OCT 31 2022 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE BAY ISLANDS...PLUS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE NORTH COAST OF THE COUNTRY. THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE COAST OF BELIZE FROM NORTH OF PUERTO BARRIOS GUATEMALA NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF CHETUMAL MEXICO. THE GOVERNMENT OF GUATEMALA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE NORTH COAST OF GUATEMALA FROM THE BORDER WITH HONDURAS WESTWARD TO PUERTO BARRIOS. THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR MEXICO FROM CHETUMAL TO PUNTA HERRERO. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BAY ISLANDS * BELIZE COAST FROM NORTH OF PUERTO BARRIOS TO SOUTH OF CHETUMAL A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BAY ISLANDS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * JAMAICA * ENTIRE NORTH COAST OF HONDURAS * GUATEMALA FROM BORDER WITH HONDURAS TO PUERTO BARRIOS * MEXICO FROM CHETUMAL TO PUNTA HERRERO. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LISA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 78.4W AT 31/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 90NE 70SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 78.4W AT 31/2100Z AT 31/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 77.8W FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 15.7N 80.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 16.2N 82.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 16.7N 85.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 17.0N 87.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 16.9N 89.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 16.9N 90.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 17.5N 93.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.5N 78.4W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 01/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE |
