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| #1114269 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:12 PM 31.Oct.2022) TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Lisa Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152022 1100 PM EDT Mon Oct 31 2022 Lisa is gradually becoming better organized with the associated convection deepening and expanding around the center. However, the system still lacks banding features. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters are currently investigating Lisa and so far have found flight-level winds as high as 46 kt and peak SFMR winds of about 35 kt. This data supports maintaining the initial intensity of 40 kt. The tropical storm is moving westward at about 10 kt. The track forecast reasoning seems fairly straightforward. A low- to mid-level ridge situated to the north of Lisa is expected to build westward. This pattern should keep the storm on a steady westward path, bringing the core of the cyclone near or just north of the Bay Islands of Honduras late Tuesday night/early Wednesday and across Belize by late Wednesday. The models are in fairly good agreement through landfall, and the NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous one during the next couple of days. After landfall, the models diverge with some solutions showing a northwest track and others a southwest motion. The NHC track forecast continues to split the difference, and it is a touch south of the previous one to be a little closer to the various consensus models. The environmental conditions appear relatively favorable for Lisa to strengthen during the next 36 to 48 hours. SSTs are quite warm beneath the cyclone and the vertical wind shear is expected to be low to moderate. There is some dry air near the system, however, which might slow the rate of intensification. The NHC intensity forecast follows the trend of the consensus models and continues to show Lisa becoming a hurricane when it is over the Gulf of Honduras early Wednesday, and it is expected to maintain that intensity when it makes landfall. Rapid weakening is expected after the system moves inland, and even though the forecast shows a 96-h point, it is certainty possible that Lisa could have dissipated by then. Key Messages: 1. Hurricane conditions are possible in the Bay Islands of Honduras early Wednesday and along the coast of Belize by Wednesday afternoon, where a Hurricane Watch is in effect. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the north coast of Honduras, where a Tropical Storm Warning has been issued. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the remainder of the coast of Honduras, the Caribbean coast of Guatemala, and the southeastern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, where tropical storm conditions are possible. 3. Localized flash flooding is expected across portions of the eastern Yucatan Peninsula, Belize, and northern Honduras, including the Bay Islands, starting late Tuesday continuing through Thursday. 4. There is potential for a dangerous storm surge near where the core of Lisa crosses the coast of Belize. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0300Z 15.6N 79.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 01/1200Z 16.0N 81.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 02/0000Z 16.4N 83.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 02/1200Z 16.8N 86.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 03/0000Z 16.9N 88.3W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND 60H 03/1200Z 16.8N 89.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 72H 04/0000Z 16.8N 91.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 05/0000Z 17.0N 93.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 06/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi |
