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| #1114348 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:54 PM 01.Nov.2022) TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Lisa Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152022 500 PM EDT Tue Nov 01 2022 Satellite images indicate that Lisa continues to become better organized with a central dense overcast feature forming along with more curved banding features. Dvorak estimates have increased as well, and the current wind speed is set to 55 kt, closest to the TAFB fix and near an average of the available values. Two Hurricane Hunter aircraft, an Air Force C-130 and a NOAA P-3, should be investigating Lisa this evening to get more in situ data. Conditions look ripe for continued intensification. Other than some lingering dry air, Lisa is moving over very warm waters, in low shear, and has a small radius-of-maximum winds and an expanding outflow pattern. These factors suggest a pretty notable chance of rapid intensification, and the SHIPS index shows basically a coin flip chance of a 25-kt wind speed increase within 24 hours. Additionally, the regional hurricane models HWRF and HMON show Lisa becoming a category 2 hurricane before landfall. The new NHC forecast is similar to those models (note that further intensification is possible between the 24h forecast and Belize landfall) and a bit higher than the corrected-consensus guidance. Lisa continues moving just north of due west or 280/13 kt. This westward track with some reduction in forward speed is anticipated due to the storm staying south of a ridge over the Gulf of Mexico. While the synoptic pattern is about the same as before, a vertically deeper Lisa is more likely to feel upper-level southeasterly flow and will probably not lose any latitude near landfall. Thus, the latest forecast has been adjusted about 15-20 n mi north of the previous one with the model guidance nudging in that direction. With the northward adjustment and a stronger cyclone in the forecast, more of the models are showing Lisa making it across Central America and Mexico as a weak tropical cyclone into the extreme southern Bay of Campeche on Friday. Although the new NHC forecast now indicates this likelihood, Lisa isn`t expected to be a significant event there due to stronger shear, and re-intensification is not indicated in the official forecast. Key Messages: 1. There is potential for a life-threatening storm surge near where the center of Lisa crosses the coast of Belize and for the southern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula starting Wednesday afternoon. 2. Hurricane conditions are expected in the Bay Islands of Honduras early Wednesday and along the coast of Belize by Wednesday afternoon. Hurricane conditions are possible in eastern Yucatan in the Hurricane Watch area Wednesday afternoon. 3. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the north coast of Honduras and Guatemala beginning tonight into Wednesday, and over the eastern Yucatan Peninsula in the Tropical Storm Warning areas beginning Wednesday afternoon. 4. Localized flash flooding is expected across portions of Belize, the Bay Islands of Honduras, northern Guatemala and the southeast portion of the Mexican state of Chiapas starting tonight through Thursday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/2100Z 16.7N 83.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 02/0600Z 17.0N 85.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 02/1800Z 17.2N 87.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 03/0600Z 17.3N 88.9W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 48H 03/1800Z 17.3N 90.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 60H 04/0600Z 17.6N 91.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 72H 04/1800Z 18.4N 93.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 96H 05/1800Z 19.8N 94.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER 120H 06/1800Z 19.0N 93.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Blake |
