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| #1114386 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:57 PM 01.Nov.2022) TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Martin Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162022 1100 PM AST Tue Nov 01 2022 Deep convection is gradually increasing near the center of Martin and banding features are becoming better established on the system`s north side. Even though the core of Martin looks tropical in nature, the storm still has some subtropical characteristics with frontal features nearby. The latest Dvorak estimates were unchanged from earlier, so the initial wind speed remains 50 kt for this advisory. Martin is moving just south of due east, with the latest initial motion estimated to be 100/9 kt. The storm should begin to turn northeastward on Wednesday as a mid- to upper-level trough currently off the northeast U.S. approaches the system. A stronger mid- to upper-level trough near Atlantic Canada should help accelerate Martin northeastward by Wednesday night and Thursday before this trough interacts and merges with the storm Thursday night and Friday. After the two systems merge, Martin will likely slow down and move eastward over the northeastern Atlantic. Little change was made to the previous track forecast during the first 72 hours, but notable eastward adjustments were made at days 4 and 5 to be in better agreement with the latest model guidance. Although Martin is over relatively cool 25 degree C waters and headed over even cooler SSTs during the next couple of days, unstable conditions and upper-level diffluence along with non-tropical forcing should cause significant strengthening during the next day or two. Martin is forecast to become a powerful extratropical low in about 36 hours when it merges with the strong trough off Atlantic Canada. After that time, the models show a slow weakening trend. The NHC intensity forecast is in line with the majority of the guidance and is fairly similar to the previous forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0300Z 35.1N 53.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 02/1200Z 35.9N 51.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 03/0000Z 38.8N 46.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 03/1200Z 44.0N 40.3W 80 KT 90 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 04/0000Z 51.4N 35.2W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 04/1200Z 57.4N 33.2W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 05/0000Z 57.3N 34.9W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 06/0000Z 54.7N 27.6W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 07/0000Z 55.0N 19.9W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Cangialosi |
