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| #1114459 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:57 AM 02.Nov.2022) TCDAT5 Hurricane Lisa Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152022 1000 AM CDT Wed Nov 02 2022 Lisa has become better organized on satellite images this morning, with strong convection near the center. Flight-level, SFMR-observed surface wind and Doppler velocity observations from Air Force and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the maximum winds are near 70 kt. This is a small hurricane, with the inner-core hurricane-force wind area only about 20 n mi across. The hurricane is likely to make landfall within 12 hours, so it has a small window for additional intensification before the center crosses the coastline. The official forecast shows a 75-kt intensity for the inland point at 12 hours, but it is expected that Lisa will be stronger than that intensity at landfall. The cyclone will rapidly weaken after moving inland and passing over Guatemala and eastern Mexico. Although the center is forecast to emerge over the Bay of Campeche in about 48 hours, strong southwesterly shear associated with an upper-level trough near Texas is expect to cause the system to weaken to a remnant low pressure area by day 5, or sooner. Lisa continues moving westward or around 275/12 kt. Over the next few days, the tropical cyclone should turn toward the northwest and north around the southwestern periphery of a mid-level high pressure area. In 3-5 days, the weak and shallow cyclone is expected to meander slowly over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico within the near-surface flow. The official track forecast is close to the multi-model consensus guidance and is similar to the previous NHC track. Key Messages: 1. There is potential for a life-threatening storm surge near where the center of Lisa crosses the coast of Belize and extreme southeastern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula starting this afternoon. 2. Hurricane conditions are expected along the coast of Belize and the southeastern Yucatan peninsula by this afternoon. 3. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the north coast of Honduras and Guatemala in the next several hours, and over the eastern Yucatan Peninsula in the Tropical Storm Warning areas beginning this afternoon. 4. Localized flash flooding is expected across portions of Belize, northern Guatemala and portions of southeastern Mexico. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/1500Z 17.2N 87.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 03/0000Z 17.3N 88.8W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND 24H 03/1200Z 17.5N 90.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 36H 04/0000Z 17.8N 92.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 04/1200Z 18.6N 94.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 60H 05/0000Z 19.6N 95.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER 72H 05/1200Z 20.5N 95.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 06/1200Z 20.0N 94.5W 25 KT 30 MPH 120H 07/1200Z 18.5N 94.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Pasch |
