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| #1114496 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:51 PM 02.Nov.2022) TCDAT5 Hurricane Lisa Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152022 400 PM CDT Wed Nov 02 2022 The hurricane is about to make landfall in Belize. Satellite and radar images show the small core of Lisa moving across Belize`s barrier islands and the eye is getting very close to Belize City. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters have been investigating Lisa during the past few hours and a combination of the flight-level winds and improvement in structure in radar images support increasing the initial intensity to 75 kt. Hurricane-force winds only extend about 15 n mi from the center, and those conditions will likely move across Belize City during the next couple of hours. Lisa is expected to track westward across Belize, northern Guatemala, and southern Mexico during the next 24 to 36 hours. After that time, a turn to the northwest and a decrease in forward speed are expected when Lisa moves over the Bay of Campeche. Over the weekend, Lisa is expected to stall before drifting southward in the low-level flow. Little change was made to the previous track forecast, and this prediction lies close to the various consensus models. After the core of Lisa moves inland, rapid weakening is forecast due to land interaction. Lisa is expected to become a tropical storm this evening and weaken to a tropical depression on Thursday. Although the storm is forecast to emerge back over water in the Bay of Campeche, strong southerly shear should prevent strengthening. The NHC intensity forecast now shows Lisa dissipating by the end of the forecast period. Key Messages: 1. Life-threatening storm surge is possible near Belize City during the next few hours. 2. Hurricane conditions are expected along the coast of Belize and the southeastern Yucatan peninsula during the next few hours. 3. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the coast of Guatemala, and over the eastern Yucatan Peninsula in the Tropical Storm Warning areas through this evening. 4. Localized flash flooding is expected across portions of Belize, northern Guatemala and portions of southeastern Mexico. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/2100Z 17.4N 88.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 03/0600Z 17.6N 89.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 24H 03/1800Z 17.9N 91.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 36H 04/0600Z 18.4N 93.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 04/1800Z 19.2N 94.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER 60H 05/0600Z 20.1N 95.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 05/1800Z 20.6N 95.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 06/1800Z 19.7N 94.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi |
