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| #1114499 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:57 PM 02.Nov.2022) TCDAT1 Hurricane Martin Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162022 500 PM AST Wed Nov 02 2022 Martin is an impressive high-latitude hurricane for November. Satellite imagery shows that the eye continues to become better defined with warmer temperatures in the center, along with a mostly solid eyewall. Dvorak estimates from both TAFB and SAB have increased to T4.5 or 77 kt, and the initial wind speed is set to 75 kt based on that data. The hurricane should begin extratropical transition overnight, with almost all of the guidance indicating strengthening. The high- resolution hurricane models and most of the global models are still showing a sting-jet-like feature, with winds of 90 kt or more expected tomorrow morning in the southern semicircle. Additionally, at about the same time, Martin should grow substantially due to a favorable mid-latitude trough interaction. Gradual weakening should start by tomorrow afternoon as the baroclinic forcing decreases, but Martin should be a very large and strong extratropical cyclone for several days over the far North Atlantic. Little change was made to the previous forecast, and Martin should become an extratropical low by 18 UTC on Thursday. Martin has turned northeastward and continues to pick up speed, now 27 kt. The hurricane should move faster to the north-northeast and north as it becomes drawn into the strong deep-layer trough to its northwest during the next day or two. This same trough will ultimately fully capture Martin, causing the now merged extratropical cyclone to slow down and eventually move eastward in the mid-latitude westerlies toward the British Isles. The new forecast was shifted eastward at long range, with only small modifications otherwise. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/2100Z 37.1N 47.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 03/0600Z 40.4N 43.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 03/1800Z 48.0N 36.5W 85 KT 100 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 04/0600Z 54.6N 36.5W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 04/1800Z 56.3N 35.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 05/0600Z 56.0N 32.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 05/1800Z 55.0N 24.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 06/1800Z 57.0N 11.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake |
