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| #1114516 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:51 PM 02.Nov.2022) TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Lisa Intermediate Advisory Number 13A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152022 700 PM CDT Wed Nov 02 2022 ...LISA BRINGING WIND, RAIN, AND STORM SURGE TO BELIZE... SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.5N 88.5W ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM W OF BELIZE CITY MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Guatemala has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for the north coast of Guatemala. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * The coast of Belize * Chetumal to Puerto Costa Maya, Mexico A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Puerto Costa Maya to Punta Allen, Mexico A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests elsewhere in Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico should monitor the progress of Lisa. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lisa was located inland near latitude 17.5 North, longitude 88.5 West. Lisa is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue for the next day or so, bringing the center of Lisa across Belize, northern Guatemala, and southeastern Mexico. After that time, a turn to the northwest and a decrease in forward speed are expected as Lisa moves over the Bay of Campeche. Maximum sustained winds are estimated to be near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid weakening will continue while the center of Lisa moves farther inland. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km). An observation station at the port of Belize City reported a sustained wind of 68 mph (109 km/h) with a wind gust of 86 mph (138 km/h) within the past couple of hours. The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected along the coast of Belize and the southeastern Yucatan peninsula during the next hour or two. Tropical storm conditions are expected through tonight in portions of the southern Yucatan Peninsula in the Tropical Storm Warning area. RAINFALL: Lisa is expected to produce rainfall amounts of: 4 to 6 inches with local amounts to 10 inches across Belize, northern Guatemala, the southern portion of the Mexican state of Quintana Roo. southern Campeche, Tabasco, northern Chiapas, and far eastern Veracruz. 2 to 4 inches with local amounts to 6 inches across the far southeastern portion of the Yucatan Peninsula, the Bay Islands of Honduras, central Guatemala and south-central Campeche. This rainfall could lead to flash flooding conditions, primarily across Belize into northern Guatemala, the far southeast portion of the Yucatan peninsula, the southern portion of the Mexican state of Campeche, Tabasco, northern Chiapas and far eastern Veracruz. STORM SURGE: A storm surge will likely raise water levels by as much as 4 to 7 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore flow near and to the north of the center of Lisa along the coast of Belize and extreme southeastern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula. Elsewhere, a storm surge of 1 to 3 feet is possible within the Tropical Storm Warning area in eastern Yucatan and up to 1 foot for the Bay Islands of Honduras. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and damaging waves. SURF: Swells generated by Lisa are expected to affect portions of Central America during the next day or two. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Bucci/Brown |
